In real life, Joe won the United States Championship on two occasions throughout 2019, but his run on the main roster fizzled out thanks to a Wellness Policy violation (remember those?) and injuries. Even if Joe traded those US title reigns for another stint as WWE Champion, it’s hard to pretend injuries weren’t a key factor in his eventual departure, and the human body isn’t subject to fantasy booking. However, there’s a chance that a recently-crowned WWE Champion and solidified main-eventer (as Joe could have been) has a spot on the roster one way or the other, and doesn’t wind up returning to “NXT” at a time when Vince McMahon was actively phasing out talent like him. Perhaps his AEW run doesn’t happen at all — he doesn’t become TNT Champion, doesn’t dethrone MJF at Worlds End 2023, doesn’t found The Opps, and doesn’t capture the trios titles from the Death Riders.

There’s a labyrinthine number of branching pathways if Joe never joins AEW — if he doesn’t challenge MJF at Grand Slam, maybe Adam Cole doesn’t jump off an entrance ramp and break his ankle, and perhaps The Devil storyline turns out to be good, or at least come to a conclusive and satisfying end. Joe not being there for CM Punk and Jack Perry’s altercation at All In 2023 also removes the man who reportedly got between them that day, perhaps putting a different sequence of events into motion in London. It’s almost impossible to argue in hindsight that Joe never switching promotions would be a huge loss for AEW — but it’s also impossible not to look at his upcoming world title match at the age of 46, think about the first Crown Jewel, the first PLE in Australia, and Saturday’s Crown Jewel PLE in Australia, and wonder what he could have been for WWE.